Fewer and Fewer Cubans in Cuba: Island’s Population Barely Reaches 8 Million

MIAMI, United States. – Cuba’s population has dropped dramatically to 8.02 million people, according to a recent independent study by Cuban economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, as reported by the EFE news agency. This figure represents a cumulative decrease of 24% in just four years.

The study, which is pending publication on the scientific platform ResearchGate, contrasts sharply with official figures that still place Cuba’s population at around 9.7 million. Albizu-Campos warns that such a steep population decline “has only been observed in contexts of armed conflict.”

In his analysis, the specialist emphasizes that this situation could reflect “a demographic crisis or a systemic crisis.” He also notes that Cuba’s demographic reality functions as an early warning indicator, akin to a “canary in the coal mine,” signaling deeper underlying crises in the country.

Albizu-Campos directly questions the accuracy of official figures, especially regarding migration. According to his calculations, around 545,011 people left Cuba in 2024, compared to the 248,165 reported officially—figures that only include those who migrated to the United States. The demographer estimates that 45.5% of Cuban emigrants choose the U.S. as their destination, based on official U.S. data and other available sources.

The last national census in Cuba was conducted in 2012. Since then, economic difficulties have led the regime to repeatedly postpone the next census, originally scheduled for 2022 and now planned for this year.

In July 2023, Albizu-Campos had already projected an 18% population drop between 2022 and 2023, estimating Cuba’s population at around 8.62 million. Subsequently, the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI) revised its numbers and acknowledged that the country’s effective population had fallen below 10 million, though it continues to report figures significantly higher than independent estimates.

Cuba is currently facing a severe economic crisis marked by chronic shortages of basic goods such as food, medicine, and fuel; high inflation; sustained economic contraction; increasing dollarization; prolonged daily blackouts; and an unprecedented wave of mass migration.

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